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  • Foto del escritorAnálisis Efectivo

Martín González / V - U and L shaped curves

In a continuing situation, we see how in the United States (Texas) by the start of the second half of 2020, it reopens (Executive Orders of the Gov. Abbott), production in the internal sectors of the economy, business (material) centers, once again flips back to their inventories, and midsize companies in cities of more than 300,000 thousand inhabitants represent a prompt and progressive commercial opening by the start of the second half of the year.

This implies a hope of optimism for the community, however, not everything had been lost since we warn that all those companies that during quarantine have proven that they are productive (services, coaching, marketing, legal, administrative, Tax) when performing the work remotely, will raise their hand more with their employees. The model we have front of work will be more flexible, we have realized that we can telework, and best of all we do not do it wrong. In fact, in some cases it's more effective.

Clearly, the scenarios will not be the same for all sectors. Tourism is expected, for example, in the fourth quarter, still below last year mainly in destinations such as New York, Miami, California and San Francisco. By sector everyone has their stage. There will be V-shaped, U- or even L-shaped curves. The latter is the worst, of course, because it means never having business again, make me clearly understand the idea our consulting partners KPMG, in Dallas.

The scenarios depend on the evolution of the disease (COVID-19), and also on the control measures established by the different governments. The disease could be contained, however, what is really relevant will be to understand and implement the gradual policies for deconfunding. We're going into recession, and a pandemic recession we haven't experienced it, so we don't know how it can be.

Reality is leading us to immediately understand that sustainability will be and to bring to society some element of solidarity that will give and will allow it to become key elements for the success of our commercial operation. The price will no longer be the main engine of the consumer and the consumer (the CONSUMER), will start to assess whether part of what is spent goes in any way to some humanitarian or social aspect. I argue that businesses that do not contribute anything to society and only aspire to a reduction in costs or to take advantage of other communities or environments, will have no future.

Finally, as we have noticed and noted above dear reader in other reflections, we invite you to start the accounting and legal sanitation operation of your company, small business or service activity, which knocks on the door and comes in the months of June-July-August is the high operation that we will have in matters of purchases, mergers, alliances and strategies between companies.

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